New Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Transitions to Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

A large-scale transition to alternative fuels and vehicles is challenging. New modeling approaches are necessary to supplement existing mod-els, such as MARKAL. One promising approach is simulation gam-ing. Simulation gaming has been used extensively in many fields, most conspicuously in military applications, to provide insights into the dynamics of uncertain processes. A large-scale game to simulate tran-sitions to alternative fuels and vehicles was developed to explore the potential of this approach. Preliminary results of the game play suggest a possible counterintuitive dynamic: high energy prices can discourage the wide-scale adoption of alternative fuel vehicles because increased fuel costs reduce consumers’ ability to pay for more costly alternative vehicle technologies.