National Level Co-Control Study of the Targets for Energy Intensity and Sulfur Dioxide in China

Since 2006, China has set goals of reducing energy intensity, emissions, and pollutants in multiple guidelines and in the Five Year Plans. Various strategies and measures have then been taken to improve the energy efficiency in all sectors and to reduce pollutants. Since controlling energy, CO₂ emissions, and pollutants falls under the jurisdiction of different government agencies in China, many strategies are being implemented to fulfill only one of these objectives.Co-controls or integrated measures could simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions and criteria air pollutant emissions. The targets could be met in a more cost effective manner if the integrated measures can be identified and prioritized. This report provides analysis and insights regarding how these targets could be met via co-control measures focusing on both CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in the cement, iron & steel, and power sectors to 2030 in China. An integrated national energy and emission model was developed in order to establish a baseline scenario that was used to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and expected actions. In addition, CO₂ mitigation scenarios and SO₂ control scenarios were also established to evaluate the impact of each of the measures and the combined effects.

The research finds:

In the power sector, although the end of pipe SO₂ control technology such as flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has the largest reduction potential for SO₂ emissions, other CO₂ control options have important co-benefits in reducing SO₂ emissions of 52.6 Mt of SO₂ accumulatively. Coal efficiency improvements along with hydropower, renewable and nuclear capacity expansion will result in more than half of the SO₂ emission reductions as the SO₂ control technology through 2016. In comparison, the reduction from carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is much less and has negative SO₂ reductions potential. The expanded biomass generation scenario does not have significant potential for reducing SO₂ emissions, because of its limited availability. For the cement sector, the optimal co-control strategy includes accelerated adoption of energy efficiency measures, decreased use of clinker in cement production, increased use of alternative fuels, and fuel-switching to biomass. If desired, additional SO₂ mitigation could be realized by more fully adopting SO₂ abatement mitigation technology measures. The optimal co-control scenario results in annual SO₂ emissions reductions in 2030 of 0.16 Mt SO₂ and annual CO₂ emissions reductions of 76 Mt CO₂.

For the iron and steel sector, the optimal co-control strategy includes accelerated adoption of energy efficiency measures, increased share of electric arc furnace steel production, and reduced use of coal and increased use of natural gas in steel production. The strategy also assumes full implementation of sinter waste gas recycling and wet desulfurization. This strategy results in annual SO₂ emissions reductions in 2030 of 1.3 Mt SO₂ and annual CO₂ emissions reductions of 173 Mt CO₂.