Taking out One Billion Tons of CO₂: The Magic of China’s 11th Five Year Plan?

China's 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) sets an ambitious target for energy-efficiency improvement: energy intensity of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) should be reduced by 20 % from 2005 to 2010 (NDRC, 2006). This is the first time that a quantitative and binding target has been set for energy efficiency, and signals a major shift in China's strategic thinking about its long-term economic and energy development. The 20% energy intensity target also translates into an annual reduction of over 1.5 billion tons of CO₂ by 2010, making the Chinese effort one of most significant carbon mitigation effort in the world today. While it is still too early to tell whether China will achieve this target, this paper attempts to understand the trend in energy intensity in China and to explore a variety of options toward meeting the 20% target using a detailed end-use energy model.