Overview of Phase 4 of the California Demand Response Potential Study

The California Demand Response (DR) Potential Study is an ongoing effort to assess the current and future DR resource in California in the context of the state’s renewable energy goals. This paper provides an overview of Phase 4 of the study, which aims to provide a thoroughly updated and expanded picture of DR in California compared to previous studies. Leveraging interval consumption data for some 400,000 utility customers, along with novel methods for clustering and end-use disaggregation, the study will construct a detailed picture of customer electricity demand in the state through 2050, including growth in electrified end uses, light-duty electric vehicles, and new loads such as electric trucks and buses, all of which present both challenges for the grid and opportunities for new DR resources. Combining the load forecast with an updated database of DR-enabling technologies, the study will assess the cost of achieving DR through a comprehensive set of technological pathways, resulting in a detailed, bottom-up supply curve for future DR resources, as well as an assessment of the potential greenhouse gas savings from development of new DR resources. The Phase 4 study focuses on the potential for shed-type DR, for mitigating peak demand events, and shift-type DR, to alleviate the steep ramps arising from the California duck curve. The study will examine specific pathways to obtaining these resources, including consideration of new approaches such as dynamic electricity tariffs, considerations for low-income and disadvantaged communities, and synergistic effects that may be achievable through integrated energy efficiency and DR programs.