An Estimate of Natural Gas Methane Emissions from California Homes

We estimate post-meter methane (CH₄) emissions from California’s residential natural gas (NG) system using measurements and analysis from a sample of homes and appliances. Quiescent whole-house emissions (i.e. pipe leaks and pilot lights) were measured using a mass balance method in 75 California homes, while CH₄ to CO₂ emission ratios were measured for steady operation of individual combustion appliances and, separately, for transient operation of three tankless water heaters. Measured quiescent whole-house emissions are typically < 1 g CH₄/day, though exhibit long tailed gamma distributions containing values > 10 g CH₄/day. Most operating appliances yield undetectable CH₄ to CO₂ enhancements in steady operation (< 0.01% of gas consumed), though storage water heaters and stove-tops exhibit long tailed gamma distributions containing high values (~ 1-3% of gas consumed), and transients are observed for the tankless heaters. Extrapolating results to the state-level using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling combined with California housing statistics and gas use information suggests quiescent house leakage of 23.4 (13.7 – 45.6, at 95% confidence) Gg CH₄, with pilot lights contributing ~ 30%. Emissions from steady operation of appliances and their pilots is 13.3 (6.6 – 37.1) Gg CH₄/yr, an order of magnitude larger than current inventory estimate, with transients likely increasing appliance emissions further. Together, emissions from residential NG are 35.7 (21.7 – 64.0) Gg CH₄/yr, equivalent to ~ 15% of California’s NG CH₄ emissions, suggesting leak repair, improvement of combustion appliances, and adoption of non-fossil energy heating sources can help California meet its 2050 climate goals.