Coping with residential electricity demand in India’s future – How much can efficiency achieve?

The time when energy-related carbon emissions come overwhelmingly from developed countries is coming to a close. China will soon overtake the United States as the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, India also seems to be on track to experience rapid long-term economic expansion. With this growth will surely come continued massive growth in energy demand. This paper explores the dynamics of that demand growth for one sector – residential electricity – and the realistic potential for coping with it through efficiency. Currently, only 60% of Indian households use electricity, and 12% own a refrigerator, but sales of appliances are booming. Air conditioning sales are growing at 20% per year. This paper forecasts ownership growth of each product using econometric modeling. Products considered explicitly - refrigerators, air conditioners, fans, lighting, electronics, and water heating – account for about 80% of current household electricity consumption.