al Energy use in commercial building in China: Current situation and future scenarios

While China’s 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity, whether and how the energy consumption trend could be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. Th is research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy effi ciency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China’s offi cial energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use; further, China uses a diff erent classifi cation system for energy reporting, so offi cial sectoral energy breakdown has long been questioned. It is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption, for example, in China’s statistics it only accounts for about 13 % of the total, while it is about 30 % in other countries. Th erefore, it is crucial to evaluate and understand the reality, rather than simply accepting it, as many of the energy analysts have done. Th e authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese effi ciency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. Th e bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment effi ciency, etc.—as a way to apply judgments, thus facilitating assessment of impacts of specifi c policy and technology changes on building energy use. Th e results suggest that 1) commercial energy consumption in China’s current statistics is underestimated by about 44 % and the fuel mix is misleading; 2) energy effi ciency improvements will not be suffi cient to off set the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings, and energy (particularly electricity) intensity in commercial buildings will increase; 3) diff erent GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of fl oor area growth, and therefore, signifi cant impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.