China and India: Energy Service and Related Material Demand Projections

The main research question being addressed in this paper is what are the key drivers of energy service and related material demand in China and India given their different stages of economic development? The paper focuses on capturing the main physical drivers of material demand and related energy growth in order to identify what subsectors need to be addressed on a priority basis to develop sustainable pathways to support the forecasted economic growth in both countries. This paper presents detailed assumptions on manufacturing activity and energy intensity to project energy consumption for material production as well as information on fuels and fuel-switching to project energy-related CO2 emissions.
The study describes in detail the methodology and underlying assumptions to develop a bottom-up, transparent baseline scenario to 2050 for both China and India that includes no major new technology breakthroughs and no newly adopted policies. This baseline scenario is developed to form the basis for future development of alternative material production and energy consumption scenarios for policy makers to inform targeted policy interventions.