Berkeley Lab's 2024 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an updated overview of data and trends in land-based wind energy in the U.S.
Though 2023 was a relatively slow year for new wind power deployment, wind continues to see technological advancements, solid performance, and attractive prices. The Inflation Reduction Act promises new market dynamics in the years ahead, with expanded domestic manufacturing capability and an anticipated resurgence in deployment. Key highlights of the new report include:
Wind comprises a significant share of electricity supply. U.S. wind power deployment was relatively low in 2023, totaling 6.5 gigawatts (GW) and representing $10.8 billion in investment. Yet wind energy contributed 10% of the nation’s electricity supply, and as much as 37% in the Southwest Power Pool. A total of 150 GW of wind was installed in the U.S. at the end of 2023. A record-high 366 GW of wind was seeking transmission interconnection.
Wind turbines continue to get larger, expanding the market for wind energy. Improved plant performance over the last decades has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2013, no turbines employed rotors that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, whereas 98% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors in 2023.
Wind energy prices have risen but remain attractive for purchasers. Wind power purchase agreement prices have been drifting higher since about 2018, with a recent range from below $20/MWh to more than $40/MWh depending on region and other details. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, are similar to recent solar sales prices and to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation.
Wind’s value proposition includes grid and societal benefits. The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2023, following a drop in the price of natural gas. Wind also reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that are larger than wind’s grid-system value. The combination of all three values ($183/MWh) significantly exceeded the levelized cost of wind energy in 2023.
The Inflation Reduction Act has created renewed optimism for supply chain expansion. Domestic manufacturing of towers and nacelles was strong in 2023, while blade manufacturing has begun to rise after several years of decline. The Inflation Reduction Act contains, for the first time, production-based tax credits for domestic manufacturing of key wind components like nacelles, towers, and blades; it also extended the tax credit for wind deployment, inclusive of a 10% bonus for projects that meet domestic content requirements. Consequently, there have been at least 15 announcements of manufacturing facilities that plan to open, re-open, or expand to serve the land-based wind industry.
Energy analysts project a resurgence of wind deployment in the years ahead. With a long-term extension of tax credits for wind energy along with opportunities for wind plants to earn two 10 percent bonus credits, analysts expect 2023 to be the low-point for wind deployment. Forecasts for wind deployment grow to an average over 15 GW/year from 2026 through 2028.