%0 Journal Article
%K China
%K Transportation decarbonization
%K Heavy-duty trucking
%A Nina Khanna
%A Hongyou Lu
%A David Fridley
%A Nan Zhou
%B Nature Scientific Reports
%D 2021
%G eng
%R https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99715-w
%T Near and long‑term perspectives on strategies to decarbonize China’s heavy‑duty trucks through 2050
%U https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-99715-w
%V 11
%8 10/2021
%X <p>China needs to drastically reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), a<br />key emitter in the growing transport sector, in order to address energy security concerns and meet<br />its climate targets. We address existing research gaps by modeling feasibility, applicability, and<br />energy and emissions impacts of multiple decarbonization strategies at different points in time. China<br />still relies heavily on coal power, so impacts of new HDT technologies depend on the timing of their<br />introduction relative to progress toward non-fossil power. We use a bottom-up model to simulate HDT<br />energy consumption and CO2 emissions through 2050. Results show that beginning to deploy battery<br />electric and fuel-cell HDTs as early as 2020 and 2035, respectively, could achieve significant and the<br />largest CO2 emissions reduction by 2050 with a decarbonized power sector. However, viable near-term<br />strategies—improving efficiency and logistics, switching to liquefied natural gas—could halve HDTs’<br />current diesel consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050. Our results underscore the need for a mix of<br />near- and long-term policy and technology options to decarbonize China’s HDTs.</p>