%0 Journal Article
%K Emissions
%K Electrification
%K Building energy-efficiency
%K National climate goals
%K Energy policy analysis
%K Decarbonization
%K Pathways building stock
%K Energy models
%A Jared Langevin
%A Chioke B Harris
%A Janet L Reyna
%B Joule
%D 2019
%G eng
%R 10.1016/j.joule.2019.07.013
%T Assessing the Potential to Reduce U.S. Building CO2 Emissions 80% by 2050
%8 08/2019
%X <p>Buildings are responsible for 36% of CO2 emissions in the United States and will thus be integral to climate change mitigation; yet, no studies have comprehensively assessed the potential long-term CO2 emissions reductions from the U.S. buildings sector against national goals in a way that can be regularly updated in the future. We use Scout, a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, to investigate the potential for the U.S. buildings sector to reduce CO2 emissions 80% by 2050, consistent with the U.S. Mid-Century Strategy. We find that a combination of aggressive efficiency measures, electrification, and high renewable energy penetration can reduce CO2 emissions by 72%–78% relative to 2005 levels, just short of the target. Results are sufficiently disaggregated by technology and end use to inform targeted building energy policy approaches and establish a foundation for continual reassessment of technology development pathways that drive significant long-term emissions reductions.</p>