%0 Journal Article
%K Modeling
%K Residential
%K Appliance energy efficiency
%K Appliances
%K Televisions
%K Refrigerators
%K Energy demand modeling
%K Regression analysis
%K Air Conditioners
%K Diffusion rates
%K Washing machines
%A Michael A McNeil
%A Virginie E Letschert
%B Energy and Buildings
%D 2010
%N 6
%P 783-790
%R 10.1016/j.enbuild.2009.11.015
%T Modeling diffusion of electrical appliances in the residential sector
%V 42
%2 LBNL-3729E
%8 06/2010
%X <p>This paper presents a methodology for modeling residential appliance uptake as a function of root macroeconomic drivers. The analysis concentrates on four major energy end uses in the residential sector: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions and air conditioners. The model employs linear regression analysis to parameterize appliance ownership in terms of household income, urbanization and electrification rates according to a standard binary choice (logistic) function. The underlying household appliance ownership data are gathered from a variety of sources including energy consumption and more general standard of living surveys. These data span a wide range of countries, including many developing countries for which appliance ownership is currently low, but likely to grow significantly over the next decades as a result of economic development. The result is a ‘global’ parameterization of appliance ownership rates as a function of widely available macroeconomic variables for the four appliances studied, which provides a reliable basis for interpolation where data are not available, and forecasting of ownership rates on a global scale. The main value of this method is to form the foundation of bottom-up energy demand forecasts, project energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and allow for the construction of detailed emissions mitigation scenarios.</p>