International Energy Studies Group
%2 LBNL-48782 %8 01/12/2000 %XThis paper analyses the evolution of carbon emissions from the manufacturing sectors of 13 IEA countries, based on national data at the 2 or 3 sector ISIC level of disaggregation. We carry out an Adaptive-Weighting-Divisia decomposition of changes into factors representing sub-sectoral branch energy intensities, output mix or structure, final fuel mix, and utility fuel mix. We also carry out a detailed comparison of emissions by country and sub-sector for 1994. We find that by the mid-1990s, emissions from manufacturing in most countries were close to their 1973 levels. The main reasons were lower branch energy intensities and in some countries changes in utility fuel mix. Changes in the mix of output had small downward effects in a few large countries (Japan and the United States), while these shifts increased emissions in others (Australia, Norway, Netherlands). Fuel mix changes lowered emissions slightly, principally through moves away from coal and oil towards gas. The comparison of countries shows that after overall output, energy intensities explain most of the differences in per capita emissions from manufacturing. Fuel mix and utility fuel mix play an important role for some countries with very CO2 — free power sectors (Sweden, Norway, France) or CO2 intensive power sectors (Australia). Some of the differences in energy intensities, however, arise because of hidden sub-sectoral mix effects that cannot be resolved at the 3-digit ISIC level of disaggregation. Emissions have been rising since 1990, largely because energy intensities are not falling as fast as they did before 1990. What this means for the Kyoto Accord and other concerns related to global carbon emissions remains to be seen.