Extreme weather events like heatwaves and stagnation are increasing with climate change. While
their effects on ozone levels have been extensively studied, how extreme weather alters O3-NOx -VOC sensi-
tivity and optimal mitigation strategies is less explored. Here, we apply the CMAQ adjoint model over central
California to quantify ozone sensitivity to spatiotemporally resolved precursor emissions under three meteoro-
logical scenarios (baseline, high-T, and stagnation) and three emission years (2000, 2012, and 2022). Results
show that meteorology-induced changes in sensitivity are comparable in magnitude to those from decadal emis-
sion reductions. Higher temperature (+5 °C) amplifies ozone sensitivity to both NOx and VOC, with the largest
relative increase in biogenic VOC sources. High-T conditions shift ozone chemistry toward NOx limitation un-
der a VOC-limited emission scenario, but increase the relative importance of VOC control for a NOx -limited
scenario. Stagnation consistently pushes ozone chemistry toward VOC limitation across emission scenarios, in-
creasing VOC sensitivity by a factor of ∼ 3–4. Stagnation also spatially shifts influential source areas, especially
for NOx , and temporally amplifies prior-day emission impacts due to enhanced pollutant carryover. As the study
domain transitions to a NOx -limited regime over time, we identify a growing subset of “climate-resilient” source
targets that remain impactful across meteorological scenarios, along with spatial convergence in optimal loca-
tions for NOx and VOC emission control. These findings underscore both the need and feasibility to consider
meteorological extremes in the design of ozone mitigation strategies for a warming climate.
Extreme weather events like heatwaves and stagnation are increasing with climate change. While
their effects on ozone levels have been extensively studied, how extreme weather alters O3-NOx -VOC sensi-
tivity and optimal mitigation strategies is less explored. Here, we apply the CMAQ adjoint model over central
California to quantify ozone sensitivity to spatiotemporally resolved precursor emissions under three meteoro-
logical scenarios (baseline, high-T, and stagnation) and three emission years (2000, 2012, and 2022). Results
show that meteorology-induced changes in sensitivity are comparable in magnitude to those from decadal emis-
sion reductions. Higher temperature (+5 °C) amplifies ozone sensitivity to both NOx and VOC, with the largest
relative increase in biogenic VOC sources. High-T conditions shift ozone chemistry toward NOx limitation un-
der a VOC-limited emission scenario, but increase the relative importance of VOC control for a NOx -limited
scenario. Stagnation consistently pushes ozone chemistry toward VOC limitation across emission scenarios, in-
creasing VOC sensitivity by a factor of ∼ 3–4. Stagnation also spatially shifts influential source areas, especially
for NOx , and temporally amplifies prior-day emission impacts due to enhanced pollutant carryover. As the study
domain transitions to a NOx -limited regime over time, we identify a growing subset of “climate-resilient” source
targets that remain impactful across meteorological scenarios, along with spatial convergence in optimal loca-
tions for NOx and VOC emission control. These findings underscore both the need and feasibility to consider
meteorological extremes in the design of ozone mitigation strategies for a warming climate.