@article{bibcite_36931,
  keywords = {Homes; Peak Demand; Appliances; Electric Grid; Electric Panel; Demand factor},
  author = {Brennan Less and Iain S Walker},
  title = {Characterizing peak electricity demand for U.S. households: an assessment of end-use loads and demand factors},
  abstract = {<p>Understanding household peak electricity demand is critical to evaluate the technical need for<br>electrical infrastructure upgrades. This study characterizes peak loads for existing and new<br>equipment using metered data from a convenience sample of 11,940 U.S. dwellings from four<br>sources, including 911 from two sources with end-use metering. After standardized data cleaning<br>and labeling, we derived descriptive statistics for key metrics, such as maximum demand and<br>demand factors, and developed predictive models relating 60- to 15-minute demand for the<br>National Electrical Code (NEC). Mean 15-minute maximum demand was 9.7 kW (median 9.0<br>kW; IQR 7.0-11.5 kW, 95\% CI 9.6 - 9.8 kW), indicating spare capacity in 98\% of homes with<br>hypothetical 100A panels. Maximum demand increased with floor area and number of high-<br>demand loads. Dwelling maximum demand was driven by higher-power, longer-duration heating<br>appliances and vehicle charging, while most user-operated appliances contributed little. Demand<br>factors are used to account for how most devices contribute less than their rated power to<br>maximum demand. Existing load mean demand factors (28\%; median 10\%; IQR 0-58\%; CI 28-<br>29\%) were higher than those for new loads (21\%; median 7\%; IQR 0-35\%; CI 20-21\%), because<br>new loads changed the timing and magnitude of maximum demand. New high-demand loads had<br>higher than average demand factors (40-60\%). Whole dwelling demand factors support the<br>NEC{\textquoteright}s 40\% assumption, but they challenge its conservative 100\% treatment of new HVAC. We<br>propose a data-driven 50\% demand factor for new equipment, which would align with metered<br>data, improve affordability, and modernize electrical codes.</p>},
  year = {2026},
  booktitle = {Applied Energy},
  journal = {Applied Energy},
  series = {Applied Energy},
  volume = {410},
  pages = {127422},
  month = {05/2026},
  institution = {Elsevier BV},
  publisher = {Elsevier BV},
  issn = {0306-2619},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127422},
  doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127422},
}