@techreport{36161,
author = {K Sydny Fujita and Nica Campbell and Margaret Taylor},
title = {EVs for everyone? Identifying the likely early majority of electric vehicle adopters},
abstract = {
The evolution of the BEV market, to date, reflects a number of developments, including: changing attributes of BEVs (e.g., more diverse models, greater range, nascent ability to provide backup power to homes, etc.) and their complementary charging infrastructure; alterations in consumers{\textquoteright} assessments of the alignment between BEVs and their preferences and travel needs; and the roll-out of new BEV-supportive policies. Considering sales volumes of BEVs to date, the U.S. has passed through the {\textquotedblleft}Innovator{\textquotedblright} stage of Roger{\textquoteright}s diffusion of innovations curve, and solidly into the {\textquotedblleft}Early Adopter{\textquotedblright} market, with the {\textquotedblleft}Early Majority{\textquotedblright} on the horizon. This paper attempts to bring the Early Majority into greater clarity, analyzing publicly available data to characterize its potential nature and size. We apply a framework of four related components of electric vehicle acceptance{\textemdash}awareness, access, approval, and adoption. The variables we examine primarily enable the {\textquotedblleft}access{\textquotedblright} component of acceptance, and include characteristics of individuals and households. We also consider physical and economic/governmental aspects of the social system in which vehicle purchase decisions occur, with a focus on the spatial heterogeneity of both public charging density and laws and incentives. A key finding is that a substantial portion of U.S. households reflect a combination of apparent BEV acceptance enablers as demonstrated by the majority of current BEV adopters. We find that 46.9\% of US household own a single-family home with reasonable charging capabilities, making the convenience and savings associated with BEV ownership feasible for nearly half of US households. Furthermore, 28\% of those household also earn more than $100k annually, leaving them potentially well-positioned to become part of the Early Majority.
},
year = {2024},
month = {01/2024},
language = {eng},
}