@misc{35016,
  keywords = {India, Power, International},
  author = {Nikit Abhyankar and Shruti M Deorah and Amol A Phadke},
  title = {Least-Cost Pathway for India’s Power System Investments through 2030},
  abstract = {<p>This study&nbsp;assesses a least-cost and operationally feasible pathway for India’s electricity grid through 2030 that validates—and surpasses—India’s 2030 target of 500 GW of installed non-fossil capacity. Using&nbsp;the latest&nbsp;cost trends,&nbsp;an industry-standard power system modeling platform (PLEXOS), and&nbsp;exhaustive analytical methods (optimal capacity expansion and hourly grid dispatch), we find that the least-cost resource mix to meet India’s load in 2030 (the “Primary Least Cost Case”) consists primarily of a combination of RE and flexible resources as follows: 465 GW of RE (307 GW<sub>DC</sub>&nbsp;solar, 142 GW wind, and 15 GW other RE), 63 GW (252 GWh) of battery storage, 60 GW of load shifting to solar hours (50 GW agricultural + 10 GW industrial), and flexible operation of the existing natural gas fleet of 25 GW. A coal power plant capacity of 229 GW (23 GW net addition over 2020) is found to be cost-effective.&nbsp;The study shows that&nbsp;between 2020 and 2030 the average cost of electricity generation drops by nearly 8-10%. In addition, despite a near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030, the&nbsp;emissions intensity of electricity&nbsp;generation&nbsp;drops&nbsp;by 43-50%, while&nbsp;total CO<sub>2</sub>&nbsp;emissions from the power sector stay almost the same as 2020 levels.&nbsp;India’s coal consumption in the power sector by 2030 is comparable to the 2020 level, implying that the clean energy transition may not lead to loss of coal mining/supply chain jobs in the near to medium term, potentially giving India sufficient time to prepare for a long-term transition.&nbsp;For India to achieve the least-cost resource mix indicated in this study, critical policy and regulatory changes&nbsp;such as a long-term resource adequacy framework for system planning and procurement, a regulatory framework for energy storage that values its full functionality, and natural gas reforms that promote flexible and efficient operations of the gas pipelines and power plants&nbsp;should be implemented.&nbsp;</p>},
  year = {2021},
  month = {12/2021},
  language = {eng},
}