@techreport{32188,
  author = {Mark Bolinger and Joachim Seel and Dana Robson},
  title = {Utility-Scale Solar: Empirical Trends in Project Technology, Cost, Performance, and PPA Pricing in the United States {\textendash}2019 Edition},
  abstract = {<p>The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012.\&nbsp; In 2018, the utility-scale sector accounted for nearly 60\% of all new solar capacity, and is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another six years.\&nbsp; More than three-quarters of all states, representing all regions of the country, are now home to one or more utility-scale solar projects.\&nbsp;</p><p>This report{\textemdash}the seventh in an ongoing annual series{\textemdash}provides in-depth data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes technology trends, installed project prices, operating costs, capacity factors, power purchase agreement ({\textquotedblleft}PPA{\textquotedblright}) prices, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), and the market value of solar. The report also includes data and observations about completed or recently announced solar+storage projects. Given its current preeminence in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate. Highlights from this year{\textquoteright}s edition include:</p><ul><li><strong><em>Installation and Technology Trends:</em></strong>\&nbsp; The use of solar trackers (all single-axis, east-west tracking) dominated 2018 installations with nearly 70\% of all new capacity.\&nbsp; After declining for five consecutive years{\textemdash}a reflection of the geographic shift in the market from the high-insolation Southwest to other less-sunny regions{\textemdash}the median long-term average insolation at newly built project sites stabilized in 2018.\&nbsp; New fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, while tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions.\&nbsp; Meanwhile, the median inverter loading ratio ({\textquotedblleft}ILR{\textquotedblright}){\textemdash}i.e., the ratio of a project{\textquoteright}s DC module array nameplate rating to its AC inverter nameplate rating{\textemdash}has grown steadily since 2014, to 1.33 in 2018 for both tracking and fixed-tilt projects, allowing the inverters to operate closer to (or at) full capacity for more of the day.\&nbsp; In 2018, seven utility-scale PV+battery projects came online.<br /><br /></li></ul><ul><li><strong><em>Installed Prices:</em></strong>\&nbsp; Median installed PV project prices have steadily fallen by nearly 70\% since 2010, to $1.6/W<sub>AC</sub> (or $1.2/W<sub>DC</sub>) for projects completed in 2018.\&nbsp; The lowest 20<sup>th</sup> percentile of projects were priced at or below $1.3/W<sub>AC</sub>, with the lowest-priced projects around $1.0/W<sub>AC</sub>.\&nbsp; Those 2018 projects that use single-axis trackers exhibited no upfront cost premium (and even slightly lower prices) on average, compared to fixed-tilt installations.\&nbsp; Overall price dispersion across the entire sample has decreased steadily every year since 2013.<br /><br /></li></ul><ul><li><strong><em>Operation and Maintenance ({\textquotedblleft}O\&amp;M{\textquotedblright}) Costs</em></strong><em>:</em>\&nbsp; PV O\&amp;M costs were in the neighborhood of $19/kW<sub>AC</sub>-year, or $11/MWh, in 2018. These numbers include only those costs incurred to directly operate and maintain the generating plant.<br /><br /></li></ul><ul><li><strong><em>Capacity Factors:</em></strong>\&nbsp; The cumulative net AC capacity factors of individual projects range widely, from 12.1\% to 34.8\%, with a sample median of 25.2\%.\&nbsp; This project-level variation is based on a number of factors, including the strength of the solar resource at the project site, whether the array is mounted at a fixed tilt or on a tracking mechanism, the ILR, degradation, and curtailment.\&nbsp; Changes in at least the first three of these factors drove mean capacity factors higher from 2010-vintage to 2013-vintage projects. \&nbsp;Among more-recent project vintages, however, mean capacity factors have remained stagnant or even declined, as a build-out of lower-resource sites has offset an increase in the prevalence of tracking (while the ILR has changed little).<br /><br /></li></ul><ul><li><strong><em>PPA Prices and LCOE:</em></strong>\&nbsp; Driven by lower installed project prices and, at least through 2013, improving capacity factors, levelized PPA prices for utility-scale PV have fallen dramatically over time, by $10/MWh per year in most years since 2013.\&nbsp; Most recent PPAs in our sample{\textemdash}including many outside of California and the Southwest{\textemdash}are priced below $40/MWh levelized (in real 2018 dollars), with many priced below $30/MWh and a few even priced below $20/MWh.\&nbsp; Despite these low PPA prices, solar continues to face stiff competition from both wind and natural gas.\&nbsp; Excluding the benefit of the 30\% ITC, the median LCOE among operational PV projects in our sample stood at $53.8/MWh in 2018, and has followed PPA prices lower over time, suggesting a relatively competitive market for PPAs.<br /><br /></li></ul><ul><li><strong><em>Solar{\textquoteright}s Wholesale Market Value:</em></strong>\&nbsp; Falling PPA prices have been matched to some degree by a decline in the wholesale market value of solar (energy + capacity) within higher-penetration solar markets like California.\&nbsp; Due to an abundance of solar energy pushing down mid-day wholesale power prices, solar generation in California earned just 79\% of the average energy and capacity price within CAISO{\textquoteright}s wholesale market in 2018 (down from 146\% back in 2012).\&nbsp; In five of the six other ISO markets analyzed, however, solar still provides above-average value.\&nbsp; In CAISO, falling solar PPA prices have largely kept pace with solar{\textquoteright}s declining market value over time, thereby maintaining solar{\textquoteright}s competitiveness.\&nbsp; In all other ISOs, solar offers higher value yet similar or even lower PPA prices than in California.<br /><br /></li></ul><ul><li><strong><em>Solar+Storage:</em></strong>\&nbsp; Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Data from 37 completed or announced PV hybrid projects (with storage duration ranging from 2-5 hours) suggests that sizing of the battery capacity relative to the PV capacity varies widely, depending on the application and specific situation.\&nbsp; Moreover, the size of the incremental PPA price adder for 4-hour storage varies linearly with this ratio, ranging from ~$5/MWh for batteries sized at 25\% of PV capacity up to $15/MWh for batteries sized at 75\% of PV capacity.\&nbsp; There are a variety of ways in which storage is compensated within these PPAs, some of which are rather creative.\&nbsp; As PV plus battery storage becomes more cost-effective, many developers are now regularly offering it as an upgrade to standalone PV.</li></ul><p>At the end of 2018, there were at least 284 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 55 GW of which are paired with storage. \&nbsp;The growth within these queues is widely distributed across all regions of the country, and is most pronounced in the up-and-coming Midwest region, which accounts for 26\% of the 133 GW added to queues in 2018, followed by the Southwest (21\%), Southeast and Northeast (each with 15\%), California (10\%), Texas (9\%), and the Northwest (5\%).\&nbsp; Though not all of these projects will ultimately be built as planned, the ongoing influx and widening geographic distribution of solar projects within these queues is as clear of a sign as any that the utility-scale market is maturing and expanding outside of its traditional high-insolation comfort zones.</p><div><div><p>\&nbsp;</p></div></div>},
  year = {2019},
  month = {12/2019},
  url = {https://emp.lbl.gov/utility-scale-solar/},
  note = {<p><span>Additional information and data visualizations can be found on our\&nbsp;</span><span>Utility-Scale Solar project page</span><span>\&nbsp;</span><strong><a title="Project Page" href="https://emp.lbl.gov/utility-scale-solar/" target="_blank">here</a></strong><span>.\&nbsp;</span></p><p><span>A webinar summarizing key findings from the report can be viewed <strong><a title="Webinar link" href="https://emp.lbl.gov/webinar/utility-scale-solar-empirical-trends-1" target="_blank">here.</a></strong></span></p>},
  language = {eng},
}