@inbook{32164,
  author = {Brian F Gerke},
  title = {Light-emitting diode lighting products},
  abstract = {<p><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">Over a span of only a few years in the early to mid-2010s the lighting industry was revolutionized by&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">the arrival on the market of products using light-emitting diodes (LEDs) for general lighting&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">applications. During that period, LED lighting products underwent both a dramatic growth in sales&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">along with a precipitous decline in price. In the United States alone, sales of LED-based standard&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">household light bulbs rose by more than two orders of magnitude, while falling nearly 10-fold in&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">price. This rapid rate of change in both price and production represented an excellent opportunity for&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">tracking the effects of technological learning in real time. Measuring the learning effect directly on&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">manufacturing costs is challenging, owing to a lack of available data on cost, as well as very rapid&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">evolution in product design. Because LED products are sold directly to consumers through online&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">retail channels, it was possible to use web-crawling techniques to track retail prices at high frequency&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">and track the price decline in great detail. A variety of studies using web crawling and other retail&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">tracking approaches pointed consistently to a steady 20%30% annual rate of price decline for&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">household LED light bulbs from 2011 to 2018, in both the United States and elsewhere. Coupling this&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">with a public sales index for the US market, a picture emerges of a technological learning curve&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">characterized by an 18% price decline for each doubling of cumulative sales. Projecting these trends&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">forward implies that substantial price declines are still to come, with prices expected to drop by more&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size: 13.008px;">than a factor of four between 2015 and 2030.</span></p>},
  year = {2019},
  journal = {Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System},
  pages = {233-254},
  month = {11/2019},
  publisher = {El Sevier},
  url = {https://www.elsevier.com/books/technological-learning-in-the-transition-to-a-low-carbon-energy-system/junginger/978-0-12-818762-3},
  language = {eng},
}