@article{27021,
  keywords = {global warming, greenhouse gas, AB 32, California climate policy, Cumulative greenhouse gas emission, Mid-term emission target},
  author = {Jeffery B Greenblatt},
  title = {Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas emissions},
  abstract = {<p>This paper examines policy and technology scenarios in California, emphasizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030. Using CALGAPS, a new, validated model simulating GHG and criteria pollutant emissions in California from 2010 to 2050, four scenarios were developed: Committed Policies (S1), Uncommitted Policies (S2), Potential Policy and Technology Futures (S3), and Counterfactual (S0), which omits all GHG policies. Forty-nine individual policies were represented. For S1–S3, GHG emissions fall below the AB 32 policy 2020 target [427 million metric tons CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent (MtCO<sub>2</sub>e)&nbsp;yr<sup>−1</sup>], indicating that committed policies may be sufficient to meet mandated reductions. In 2030, emissions span 211–428&nbsp;MtCO<sub>2</sub>e&nbsp;yr<sup>−1</sup>, suggesting that policy choices made today can strongly affect outcomes over the next two decades. Long-term (2050) emissions were all well above the target set by Executive Order S-3-05 (85&nbsp;MtCO<sub>2</sub>e&nbsp;yr<sup>−1</sup>); additional policies or technology development (beyond the study scope) are likely needed to achieve this objective. Cumulative emissions suggest a different outcome, however: due to early emissions reductions, S3 achieves lower cumulative emissions in 2050 than a pathway that linearly reduces emissions between 2020 and 2050 policy targets. Sensitivity analysis provided quantification of individual policy GHG emissions reduction benefits.</p>},
  year = {2015},
  journal = {Energy Policy},
  volume = {78},
  pages = {158 - 172},
  month = {03/2015},
  issn = {03014215},
  doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.024},
}