@article{58294,
  keywords = {Policies for Low-Carbon Markets, Cost, Input{\textendash}output analysis, Oil import risks},
  author = {Mei Su and Cuixia Gao and Bo Shen},
  title = {Quantifying China{\textquoteright}s Oil Import Risks and the Impact on the National Economy},
  abstract = {<p>With an increase in China{\textquoteright}s oil imports, China{\textquoteright}s oil supply will also continue to be effected by the socio-economic stability of oil-exporting countries and the safety of oil transport routes. This paper introduces a systematic and quantitative method to evaluate the influence of China{\textquoteright}s oil import risks (OIR) on the national economy and industrial sectors from a perspective of apply chain process. For this analysis, China{\textquoteright}s OIR is quantified by integrating oil exporting country risk and the risks from oil transportation routes. Country risk is defined as the oil-exporting country{\textquoteright}s political risk caused by political changes or internal conflicts. Transport risk is defined as the risk of shipping routes affected by pirate attacks and geopolitics. Second, the relationship between China{\textquoteright}s OIR and oil import costs is analyzed using a multiple linear approach. Third, an input{\textendash}output analysis method is used to research the effect of the cost of China{\textquoteright}s oil imports on the cost of investment within China{\textquoteright}s domestic sectors. This research finds that the corresponding impact on GDP is 3494.5 million dollars given an increasing by 10\% of China{\textquoteright}s OIR. And the impact on domestic sectors differs from sector to sector. Finally, this paper puts forth recommendations to improve long-term oil supply security in China.</p>},
  year = {2014},
  booktitle = {Energy Policy},
  journal = {Energy Policy},
  series = {Energy Policy},
  volume = {67},
  pages = {605-611},
  month = {04/2014},
  institution = {Elsevier},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.061},
}