@article{25515, author = {James E Hansen and Larissa Nazarenko and Reto Ruedy and Makiko Sato and Josh Willis and Anthony Del Genio and Dorothy M Koch and Andrew A Lacis and Kwok-Wai Ken Lo and Surabi Menon and Tihomir Novakov and Judith Perlwitz and Gary L Russell and Gavin A Schmidt and Nicholas Tausnev}, title = {Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications}, abstract = {
Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 ± 0.15 watts per square meter more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include (i) the expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6°C without further change of atmospheric composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system's lag in responding to forcings, implying the need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.
}, year = {2005}, journal = {Science}, volume = {308}, pages = {1431-1435}, doi = {10.1126/science.1110252}, }